After an increase in the value of a six-year-old strong house, the American housing market is now cooling down. The increase in house prices is gradually decreasing. Demand and construction activity is falling between rising interest rates. The sense of homebuilder is also the lowest in more than three years.
S & amp; P / Case-Schiller seasonally adjusted National Domestic Price Index increased 5.16% during November 2018 (2.92% Inflation-adjusted) during the year, slowing down by 6.09% in the previous year and lowest pace in more than two years . This was supported by the seasonal-adjusted purchase of the Federal Housing Finance Agency-the US House Price Index, which grew by 5.76% in June 2018 (3.5% inflation-adjusted) in November 2017, lower than the Yue Raise of 6.72% in November 2017 and 6.37% In November 2016.
Despite this, all 20 major American cities continued to experience house price hikes, according to Standard and Poor’s, Las Vegas posted the highest growth of 12.07% during the year 2018 in 2018, followed by Phoenix (8.1%), Seattle (6.33%), Denver (6.22%), Atlanta (6.2%), Minneapolis (5.77%), Detroit (5.75%), Tampa (5.68%), San Francisco (5.6%), Boston (5.59%) And Charlotte (5.45%)). The increase in the price of the modest home is in Miami (4.96%), Cleveland (4.63%), Los Angeles (4.44%), Portland (4.38%), Dallas (3.96%), New York (3.5%), San Diego (3.35%) Entered ), Chicago (3.11%) and Washington (2.72%).
In November, 2018 home prices rose by 7.44%, followed by East South Central (7.32%), South Atlantic (6.68%), East North Central (5.73%), West North Central (5.59%) Increased in , And according to the FHFA, New England (5.29%).
According to the US Census Bureau, the U.S. Average sales rates for new homes sold in India increased from just 1.8% y-o-y to $ 362,400 in November 2018. In fact, the average sales cost of new homes fell by 11.9% to US $ 302,400 in the same period.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) for existing homes, the average price was 2.9% to US $ 253,600 a year ago in December 2018. The rise in December prices is the same as the 82th consecutive year of year-by-year.
Demand is now decreasing
According to the US Census Bureau, sales of new single-family homes were 7.7% lower than the previous year’s annual seasonally adjusted rate of 657,000 units in November 2018. Similarly, according to the NAR, the current domestic sales were reduced from 10.3% y-o-y to 4.99 million units in 2018.
The construction activity is weak. According to the US Census Bureau, in November 2018, the new housing began with seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000 units from 3.6% y-o-y, whilst the completion was 3.9% to 1,099,000 units. Authorized Building Permits for New Residential Units reached 1,328,000 units in November 2018 by 0.4% y-o-y.
According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), the U.S. The sense of homebuilder was reduced in December 2018 and less than the previous year’s level of 74 and in fact it was lowest after May 2015. Reading 50 is the middle point between positive and negative expressions.
NHB Chief Economist Robert Ditz said, “This housing recession is an early indicator of economic slowdown, and it is important that builders manage supply-side costs to keep home prices competitive for buyers at different price points. We do.”
The American housing market is expected to continue slower in the coming years. The current domestic sales of NAR have increased by about 1% in only 5.4% of the units this year. Apart from this, the national average current-house price is expected to rise by a modest 3.1% to 266,800 US dollars.
“Forecasting for home sales will be very boring – which means stable,” said NAR Chief economist Lawrence Yun. “The appreciation of home price will be slow – the days of easy price profit are coming to an end – but prices will continue to grow.”
US economic growth is very strong, and corporate taxes have been cut
According to the US Federal Reserve, in the year 2018, the US economy grew by 3% in 2018, which was expanding 2.2% in 2017 and actually the fastest pace since 2005. Economic development was mainly filled with strong consumer spending, which is supported by rising domestic assets, high house prices, tax cuts and wage hikes.
Although the economy is expected to slow down, according to the Fed due to the ongoing trade war, mainly due to the estimated GDP growth rate of 2.3%, 2% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. Effective January 1, 2018, there is a huge reduction in corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% in the law to promote economic development and encourage business investment. But this mortgage also reduces the interest deduction cap, increases the standard deduction, but with the uncertain influence on the housing market – restricts state and local tax deductions.